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“Is NVIDIA’s AI growth actually translating into sustainable cash flow?”

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Dated research example · not a live request

Investigations run
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Research hours saved
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One investigation. Dozens of signals. One evidence trail.

  • Financials
  • SEC filings
  • Earnings
  • News
  • Analyst estimates
  • Options flow
  • Dark pools
  • Institutional activity
  • Sentiment
  • Public filings
  • Congressional filings

Available research inputs—not a checklist of sources used below. The example identifies the evidence reviewed and the gaps.

NVDA investigationEvidence through August 26, 2026

Research Analysis. NVIDIA case study

The headline showed growth. The cash figures raised a question.

The evidence trail

Evidence reviewed

This dated example examines earnings and cash generation. These are the company disclosures behind it—not a full market scan.

Not used in this example

  • Earnings transcripts
  • Analyst estimates
  • News
  • Options flow
  • Dark pools
  • Institutional positioning
  • Sentiment
  • Technical indicators

What NVIDIA reported

Q2 FY2027 · quarter ended July 26, 2026

01 · Revenue

$96.221B

Up 106% from $46.743B a year earlier.

Earnings release · August 26, 2026

02 · GAAP net income

$59.688B

Reported profit for the same quarter.

Earnings release · August 26, 2026

03 · Operating cash flow

$24.077B

Cash generated by operations during the quarter.

Cash-flow statement · August 26, 2026

04 · What the figures show

40.3%

Operating cash flow as a share of GAAP net income: $24.077B ÷ $59.688B. Our calculation from the reported quarterly figures.

Conclusion from these figures

Revenue more than doubled, while operating cash flow was 40.3% of net income for the quarter. That establishes a difference between reported profit and cash generation—not its cause.

Editorial summary of historical company disclosures. Reported figures and our calculation are labeled separately. These figures alone do not establish a collection problem or a buy/sell recommendation.

Connected research

One question.
Multiple evidence streams.

“Is NVIDIA’s growth sustainable?”

NVIDIA One shared investigation
  • FinancialsReviewed in this example
  • EarningsReviewed in this example
  • Analyst estimatesNot in this example
  • Options flowNot in this example
  • Dark poolsNot in this example
  • Institutional activityNot in this example
  • NewsNot in this example
  • SentimentNot in this example
  • TechnicalsNot in this example
SENTIMENTOR Find agreement. Surface contradiction.
  • Supporting evidence
  • Contradicting evidence
  • Open questions
  • What to monitor
The research model—not nine completed checks. The dated NVDA example uses financials and earnings disclosures; the other streams remain open inputs.
See the evidence behind the conclusion

From the chart to a research question

NVIDIA’s revenue doubled.
Did cash generation keep up?

A chart shows how the price moved—not why cash and earnings differed. These dated NVIDIA disclosures establish the starting facts. They leave a research question: what explains the gap?

NVDA · Q2 FY2027 · quarter ended July 26, 2026Evidence through August 26, 2026
01

Reported revenue

$96.221B

Quarterly revenue, up 106% year over year.

NVIDIA earnings release · August 26, 2026Inspect the results
02

Reported Data Center growth

117% growth

Data Center revenue rose to $89.023B.

NVIDIA earnings release · August 26, 2026Inspect the evidence
03

Cash flow compared with profit

40.3%

Operating cash flow as a share of GAAP net income. A gap worth examining.

$24.077B ÷ $59.688B · our calculationInspect the cash flow
04

The research question

The explanation.

This ratio alone cannot establish why cash conversion differed—or what happens next.

Open question · same evidence cutoffWhat would you need to investigate?

The takeaway: Revenue growth alone does not establish that cash generation kept pace. The reported figures identify a gap; they do not explain it.

Historical company disclosures. The price chart is separate evidence and does not establish the cause of a market reaction. Research, not financial advice.

You have a question.

Getting the full picture
takes work.

Does the growth story hold up?

  • Chart.

    What happened?

  • News.

    Why?

  • Filings.

    What changed in the business?

  • Sentiment.

    How is the market reacting?

  • Other evidence.

    What contradicts the thesis?

  • Notes.

    What do I actually believe now?

The value is knowing what the evidence changes.

From a promising idea
to a decision you can explain.

See the connected workspace

What this changes in a decision

A headline gives you a reason to look. Evidence gives you conditions to act.

NVDA · Worked example using evidence through August 26, 2026. Choose the decision you are weighing.

The starting assumption

Revenue doubled. Is that enough reason to buy?

Augur’s analysis

Augur separates a growing business from a justified entry.

Revenue grew 106% year over year, while quarterly operating cash flow was 40.3% of net income.

The reported revenue growth supports the business expansion story. It does not tell you whether that growth is already reflected in the share price.

Check the reported figures
The decision it supports

Make the entry conditional.

The growth figure earns a closer look. It does not establish an attractive entry price. Compare valuation and current price with your thesis, then decide whether the potential upside justifies the downside.

Read Augur’s reasoning · Considering buying
  • Operating cash flow trails reported profit. Augur’s supplied analysis identifies working-capital cash movements and noncash investment gains as reasons to examine the gap, rather than treating earnings as cash available to the business.
  • This investigation does not establish an entry price or future cash conversion. Those checks remain open before a trade can be justified.
Inspect the filing and cash-flow explanation

Scenario-specific interpretation of the supplied Augur research, not a separate recorded recommendation.

How the decision changes

Illustrative comparison: the “without” path assumes the investor acts on the headline or ratio alone.

Without Augur

Buy on the growth headline.

An investor focused only on doubled revenue could enter immediately, assuming strong growth also means strong cash generation and an attractive price.

With Augur

Keep NVDA on the shortlist; wait for the entry checks to pass.

The decision moves from “growth means buy” to “growth earns a closer look; price, cash generation and downside must justify an entry.”

What to do next: Before an entry: define the price you would pay, the loss you can tolerate, and the evidence that would invalidate the thesis. If those checks do not pass, wait or choose another candidate.

Why keep Sentimentor? Repeat this process across new candidates and existing positions: narrow the shortlist, challenge the reason to trade, test your rules, and revisit the decision when the evidence changes.

Illustrative decision framework, not a documented customer trade or a measured return. This evidence alone cannot establish a buy/sell signal or prove that a decision made money.

Inspect the full NVDA investigation

Check the idea from more than one angle

Everything your thesis needs.
In one investigation.

Check what the company actually reported
SEC filings · Original disclosures, with their reporting periods and filing dates
Understand what changed after earnings
Earnings · What management said and what changed
See whether the business supports the story
Financials · Revenue, margins, cash generation and the fundamental trajectory
See how expectations are changing
Analyst estimates · Compare estimates across matched reporting periods
Examine how options are trading
Options flow · Derivatives activity, with hedging and multi-leg context
See activity away from public exchanges
Dark pools · Off-exchange records, checked for coverage and trade conditions. A print alone does not identify an institution or its intent.
Track reported institutional holdings
Institutional activity · Reported holdings and changes, with reporting delays kept visible
Find what changed recently
News · Trace the headline back to the original report
Understand the reaction, not just the attention
Sentiment · How the sampled market conversation is reacting
Put the evidence beside price and volume
Technicals · Price and volume context for the research question

Sentimentor doesn’t ask one source for an answer. It looks for agreement—and contradiction—across them.

Relevant sources are selected for the question. Coverage varies by instrument, date and plan; unavailable evidence stays visible as a gap.

Explore the source-specific series Browse all investigations

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For the question you’re asking.

Research with AI, analyze charts yourself, build strategies, or repeat your checks. Use one capability or connect them around the same idea.

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Coverage varies by market and plan; not every investigation uses every source.

Analyze charts

Price. Volume.
Technical context.

Move from the big picture to the smallest price action. Explore timeframes, indicators, and drawing tools. Compare price with volume and mark the levels you want to investigate, with the context you need close at hand.

Explore the charts

NVDA · historical price & volume

Sentimentor chart · fixed historical window

Try the indicator menu → SMA 20, mark a level with the drawing toolbar, or switch daily/weekly views. SMA needs 20 observed bars in the selected timeframe. Weekly candles aggregate available daily records; boundary weeks or missing sessions may be incomplete. No AI request is made.

Daily · US session · Drag to pan, scroll to zoom. Drawings stay in this demo; nothing is saved to your workspace.

Historical records load when this chart enters view.

Use the same chart engine and drawing tools as the workspace. Explore this fixed historical window yourself; drawings stay in this preview and are not saved.

From a question to connected evidence

Investigate stocks with AI.
See what supports your next move.

Start with “What should I look at?” or bring an idea you already have. Screen candidates, compare supporting and conflicting evidence, and define when to act, wait, or pass—with Augur, Sentimentor’s AI research assistant.

Why not just ask ChatGPT or Claude?

Augur is Sentimentor’s market-research agent. Its advantage is the path from discovery to a decision: screen candidates, investigate what supports them, test your rules, and track what would change your view using 48 dedicated tools.

Discover what deserves your attention.
Ask for opportunities without supplying a ticker. Compare screened candidates against dated prices, news, filings and available market activity; see why a candidate makes the shortlist.
Decide what would make it a trade.
Check the thesis, entry conditions and reasons to pass. Bring an existing idea for a second look, or turn explicit trading rules into editable code to test against historical data.
Know when your thesis changes.
Save your investigation and its sources. Choose which claims to revisit and schedule repeat checks. Review new evidence against your original view.

ChatGPT and Claude can research and cite sources too. Augur brings the market-specific tools and next steps together in Sentimentor. Data coverage and usage limits vary by market and plan; AI analysis still needs your review.

Simulated examples. No report, chart, strategy or workflow is created or saved.

  • Evidence report. Sources, counter-evidence, open questions.
  • Chart. Illustrative chart · not market data.
  • PineNode strategy. Illustrative draft · not backtested.
  • Workflow. Illustrative steps · not scheduled.

Connect company filings, news and sentiment to your stock thesis.

Actual supplied Augur response · historical example

Stronger business, fewer shares—or both?

Evidence cutoff: September 23, 2026. This is a recorded response, not a new live request. Sources and limitations remain with the answer.

Apple’s latest earnings were driven mainly by stronger operating performance, with share repurchases providing an additional per-share benefit.

Inspect the exact prompt
Investigate Apple (AAPL): Are its latest earnings being driven by stronger business performance, share buybacks, or both?

Use the latest quarterly results published on or before September 23, 2026. Identify the fiscal quarter, reporting date, and evidence cutoff.

Compare revenue, net income, diluted EPS, and weighted-average diluted shares with the same quarter a year earlier. Explain the distinction between business growth and per-share growth without assuming either improved.

Examine iPhone and Services performance, margins, cash generation, and buybacks. Use matching fiscal periods; show any calculations derived from cumulative disclosures.

Use Apple’s earnings releases and SEC filings as primary sources. Include a compact table of the key figures, comparison periods, and source links. Separate reported facts, management explanations, and your interpretation. Mark unavailable evidence explicitly.

Organize the assessment into:
1. Bottom line
2. What supports the thesis
3. What challenges it
4. What would change the assessment
5. What remains uncertain

Do not give a buy/sell recommendation.
Read the full Augur response inline

Evidence-Based Investment Research Report

As of: 2026-09-23T20:36:17.519Z

Primary issuer: Apple Inc. (AAPL), CIK 0000320193

Latest quarterly results available by the cutoff: Fiscal Q3 2026, three months ended June 27, 2026; earnings release published July 30, 2026; Form 10-Q filed July 31, 2026.

Narrative report

1. Business model

Bottom line: Apple’s latest earnings were driven mainly by stronger operating performance, with share repurchases providing an additional per-share benefit.

Apple generated Q3 FY2026 revenue from Products and Services. The largest disclosed product category was iPhone, while Services remained a substantial recurring-revenue component.

Reported fact: For the quarter ended June 27, 2026:

  • iPhone revenue was $54.252B, compared with $44.582B in Q3 FY2025.
  • Services revenue was $30.739B, compared with $27.423B.
  • Total revenue was $109.417B, compared with $94.036B.

Source: Apple Inc., Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ended June 27, 2026, filed July 31, 2026, pp. 1 and 6, Note 2, “Revenue”: SEC filing.

Management explanation: In Apple’s July 30, 2026 earnings release, Tim Cook described the quarter as Apple’s “strongest June quarter ever,” citing double-digit growth across iPhone, Mac, and Services and across every geographic segment. Apple also said its installed base of active devices reached a new all-time high.

Source: Apple, “Apple reports third quarter results,” July 30, 2026: Apple Newsroom.

Interpretation: The revenue increase was not solely a buyback effect. Buybacks can increase EPS by reducing the denominator, but they do not directly increase iPhone revenue, Services revenue, total revenue, or operating income.

2. Revenue and earnings growth

MetricQ3 FY2026Q3 FY2025Derived change
Revenue$109.417B$94.036B+16.4%
Net income$29.789B$23.434B+27.1%
Diluted EPS$2.02$1.57+28.7%
Weighted-average diluted shares14.715B14.948B-1.6%
iPhone revenue$54.252B$44.582B+21.7%
Services revenue$30.739B$27.423B+12.1%
Operating income$35.695B$28.202B+26.6%

Source for all reported figures: Apple Inc., Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed July 31, 2026, pp. 1 and 6, Note 2: SEC filing.

Derived calculations:

  • Revenue growth = $109.417B / $94.036B − 1 = 16.4%
  • Net-income growth = $29.789B / $23.434B − 1 = 27.1%
  • Diluted-EPS growth = $2.02 / $1.57 − 1 = 28.7%
  • Diluted-share change = 14.715B / 14.948B − 1 = −1.6%
  • iPhone growth = $54.252B / $44.582B − 1 = 21.7%
  • Services growth = $30.739B / $27.423B − 1 = 12.1%

Reported fact: Net income grew by approximately 27.1%, while diluted EPS grew by approximately 28.7%. Weighted-average diluted shares declined by approximately 1.6%.

Interpretation: Business growth and per-share growth are different measurements:

  • Business growth: Revenue, operating income, and net income measure the growth of Apple’s consolidated business and earnings dollar base.
  • Per-share growth: EPS also reflects the number of diluted shares outstanding.

The approximately 1.6% reduction in diluted shares helped EPS grow slightly faster than net income. However, the large increase in net income and operating income shows that the EPS increase was not created by buybacks alone.

3. Margins

Reported fact: Apple reported Q3 FY2026 gross margin of 50.1% in its July 30 earnings release, compared with a gross-profit-to-revenue margin of approximately 46.5% in the prior-year quarter.

Derived calculation from the 10-Q income statement:

  • Q3 FY2026 gross margin = $54.770B / $109.417B = 50.06%
  • Q3 FY2025 gross margin = $43.718B / $94.036B = 46.49%
  • Derived change = approximately +3.57 percentage points

The small difference between the derived 50.06% and Apple’s reported 50.1% reflects rounding in the financial statement figures.

Operating margins also improved:

  • Q3 FY2026 operating margin = $35.695B / $109.417B = 32.62%
  • Q3 FY2025 operating margin = $28.202B / $94.036B = 29.99%
  • Derived change = approximately +2.63 percentage points

Source: Apple Inc., Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed July 31, 2026, p. 1: SEC filing.

Management explanation: Apple’s July 30 release said gross margin included a favorable impact of approximately 2 percentage points from tariff refunds. It also said tariff refunds contributed $0.11 to diluted EPS.

Interpretation: The margin improvement was substantial, but it was not entirely evidence of recurring operating improvement. Apple disclosed a specific favorable tariff-refund contribution. A complete normalized gross-margin or EPS reconciliation was not retrieved, so the sustainable portion of the improvement is Unverified / unresolved.

The operating-income increase of approximately 26.6%, broadly consistent with the net-income increase of 27.1%, supports the view that improved operating performance—not only non-operating items or buybacks—was important in the quarter.

4. Balance sheet

Reported fact: At June 27, 2026, Apple reported:

  • Cash and cash equivalents: $39.544B
  • Current marketable securities: $22.855B
  • Non-current marketable securities: $84.118B
  • Total current assets: $149.818B

Source: Apple Inc., Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed July 31, 2026, p. 3: SEC filing.

Marketable securities are not cash and should be analyzed separately from cash and cash equivalents.

Cash generation — reported fact: For the nine months ended June 27, 2026, Apple reported operating cash flow of $116.996B, compared with $81.754B for the nine months ended June 28, 2025.

Derived calculation:

  • Nine-month operating-cash-flow growth = $116.996B / $81.754B − 1 = 43.1%
  • Current nine-month operating cash flow / net income = $116.996B / $101.464B = 1.15×
  • Prior nine-month operating cash flow / net income = $81.754B / $84.544B = 0.97×

Apple reported nine-month capital expenditures of $6.799B in FY2026 and $9.473B in FY2025.

Derived free cash flow:

  • FY2026 nine-month free cash flow = $116.996B − $6.799B = $110.197B
  • FY2025 nine-month free cash flow = $81.754B − $9.473B = $72.281B
  • Derived change = $110.197B / $72.281B − 1 = 52.5%

These are matching nine-month calculations using operating cash flow minus capital expenditures. They are not standalone Q3 figures.

Unavailable evidence: The retrieved primary-source material states that Q3 operating cash flow was a June-quarter record but does not provide the exact standalone Q3 operating-cash-flow amount needed for a direct quarter-versus-quarter cash-flow calculation. That standalone comparison remains Unverified / unresolved.

5. Valuation

All dependent valuation outputs are conditional on the UNVERIFIED current-price input.

Valuation is included as context only; it is not the basis of the operating assessment.

Valuation snapshot: UNVERIFIED price input

  • Price: $336.89, UNVERIFIED;
  • ticker.lastTrade.p
  • Trade/quote timestamp: 2026-09-23T20:33:39.352Z
  • Retrieval timestamp: 2026-09-23T20:35:28.907Z
  • Session: After-hours
  • Provider: Polygon.io
  • Source record: AAPL snapshot record
  • Share count: 14.594180B common shares outstanding
  • Share-count date: July 17, 2026
  • Retained record SHA-256:
  • 38e58591439ea7dc35cdb796383a7b9bdb9fa65591047bd6ba7c6cd7b69bfa28

The latest completed regular-session close was $337.02 on September 23, 2026, from the dated daily aggregate record at Polygon.io AAPL daily aggregate. That regular-session close is reference context only and is not the valuation input selected above.

All price-dependent valuation outputs below are conditional on the disclosed, independently unconfirmed after-hours price.

Derived approximate Approximate market capitalization:

$336.89 × 14.594180B = $4,916.633B

This is approximate because the price timestamp and share-count date do not match.

TTM revenue and earnings bridges are derived from four issuer-period inputs:

TTM revenue formula: $102.466B + $143.756B + $111.184B + $109.417B = $466.823B

TTM net income formula: $27.466B + $42.097B + $29.578B + $29.789B = $128.930B

TTM operating income formula: $32.427B + $50.852B + $35.885B + $35.695B = $154.859B

Conditional multiples using the unverified price input:

  • Approximate market capitalization / TTM revenue = $4,916.633B / $466.823B = 10.532×
  • Approximate Approximate market capitalization / TTM net income = $4,916.633B / $128.930B = 38.134×
  • EV / TTM revenue: Unresolved, because the retrieved evidence does not provide a complete, source-matched total-debt input for the selected valuation date.
  • EV / TTM operating income: Unresolved for the same missing total-debt and cash/securities bridge.

EV convention: approximate Approximate market capitalization + total debt − cash and cash equivalents − marketable debt securities; marketable equity investments are not deducted from base EV. Apple’s reported cash and marketable-securities balances are separate inputs, not interchangeable with cash.

6. Competitive position

Competitive comparisons are not necessary to determine whether this quarter’s earnings growth was operational or buyback-driven. No like-for-like, current primary-source competitor comparison was retrieved for this report.

AlternativeComparison dimensionDated evidenceSource/dateLimitationStatus
Samsung ElectronicsSmartphone revenue and profitability versus Apple iPhoneUNVERIFIED — no matching Samsung product-period evidence retrievedNot retrieved as of 2026-09-23Apple iPhone revenue cannot be compared with Samsung consolidated revenue without matching product scope and accounting definitionsUNVERIFIED
AlphabetServices, installed-base, or ecosystem economics versus Apple ServicesUNVERIFIED — no matching Alphabet product-period evidence retrievedNot retrieved as of 2026-09-23Apple Services revenue is not directly comparable with Alphabet consolidated or segment revenueUNVERIFIED

Apple’s Q3 results establish its own revenue and earnings growth, but they do not establish current market share, competitor weakness, or a comparative moat.

7. Recent fundamental changes

Reported facts:

  • Broader revenue growth: Q3 revenue increased 16.4%, with iPhone up 21.7% and Services up 12.1%.
  • Improved operating results: Operating income increased 26.6%, while derived operating margin expanded by approximately 2.63 percentage points.
  • Stronger cumulative cash generation: Nine-month operating cash flow increased 43.1%, and derived nine-month free cash flow increased 52.5%.
  • Lower diluted share count: Weighted-average diluted shares declined 1.6%.
  • Lower cumulative repurchase spending: Nine-month repurchases of common stock were $62.094B, compared with $70.579B in the prior-year nine-month period, a derived decline of 12.0%.

Source: Apple Inc., Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed July 31, 2026, pp. 1 and 5: SEC filing.

Management explanation: Apple attributed part of the margin and EPS improvement to tariff refunds and described the active-device installed base as reaching an all-time high.

Interpretation: The combination of higher operating income, iPhone and Services growth, and stronger nine-month cash generation supports a business-performance explanation. The lower share count explains why EPS growth modestly exceeded net-income growth. The reported decline in nine-month repurchase spending means the share-count effect should not be treated as the sole or necessarily dominant explanation.

The assessment would change toward buybacks as the dominant driver if future periods showed flat or declining revenue and operating income while EPS continued to rise mainly through a materially lower diluted share count. It would strengthen toward durable business improvement if future quarters sustained revenue, operating-income, and cash-flow growth without a comparable tariff-refund benefit.

8. Three strongest bull and bear arguments

The table separates observed facts from the interpretation of what would strengthen or weaken each thesis. Thresholds described as analyst monitoring assumptions are not Apple guidance.

TypeDriverCurrent evidenceWhat would confirmWhat would weaken
BullBroad product and Services demandObserved fact: Q3 revenue rose 16.4%; iPhone rose 21.7%; Services rose 12.1%. Management explanation: Apple cited double-digit growth across iPhone, Mac, Services, and geographic segments.In the next comparable quarter, iPhone and Services both post positive year-over-year growth without relying on a newly disclosed one-time refund.Either iPhone or Services declines year over year, or total revenue growth falls below 5% while management identifies weaker customer demand. Analyst-selected assumption. Rationale: a round sensitivity level for this driver, not an empirically calibrated forecast or failure boundary. Crossing it is evidence for the scenario, not automatic proof.
BullOperating leverageObserved fact: Operating income rose 26.6% versus revenue growth of 16.4%; derived operating margin expanded from approximately 29.99% to 32.62%.In the next comparable quarter, operating-income growth again exceeds revenue growth and operating margin remains above the prior-year comparable margin.Operating-income growth falls below revenue growth and the operating margin returns to, or falls below, the prior-year comparable margin.
BullCash generation supports earnings qualityObserved fact: Nine-month operating cash flow rose 43.1%; derived nine-month free cash flow rose 52.5%; current OCF/net income was 1.15×.Analyst monitoring assumption: a subsequent matching period maintains OCF/net income at or above 1.0× while free cash flow remains positive and grows year over year.OCF/net income falls below 1.0× and matching-period free cash flow declines year over year.
BearTariff-refund normalizationObserved fact: Apple said tariff refunds contributed approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to diluted EPS.A subsequent quarter lacks a comparable benefit and gross margin falls by at least 2 percentage points year over year, with corresponding pressure on EPS growth.Gross margin remains at or above the current reported 50.1% without a similarly sized tariff-refund benefit.
BearPer-share growth becomes increasingly buyback-dependentObserved fact: EPS rose 28.7%, net income rose 27.1%, diluted shares fell 1.6%, while nine-month repurchase spending declined 12.0%.Analyst monitoring assumption: net-income growth falls below 5% while EPS growth remains above 5% and diluted shares decline by more than 2% year over year. Analyst-selected assumption. Rationale: a round sensitivity level for this driver, not an empirically calibrated forecast or failure boundary. Crossing it is evidence for the scenario, not automatic proof.EPS growth continues to track net-income growth while operating income and revenue remain positive, without an accelerating share-count reduction.
BearServices growth moderatesObserved fact: Services grew 12.1%, below total revenue growth of 16.4% and iPhone growth of 21.7%.Services growth falls below 10% in the next comparable quarter and Apple reports weaker Services-related demand or engagement. Analyst-selected assumption. Rationale: a round sensitivity level for this driver, not an empirically calibrated forecast or failure boundary. Crossing it is evidence for the scenario, not automatic proof.Services growth reaccelerates above 12.1% while total Services revenue continues to grow year over year. Analyst-selected assumption. Rationale: a round sensitivity level for this driver, not an empirically calibrated forecast or failure boundary. Crossing it is evidence for the scenario, not automatic proof.

Evidence appendix: Canonical facts

ClaimExact valuePeriod/as-of timeClassificationSource with date and locatorCalculationConflicts/limitationsVerification needed
Total revenue$109.417BQ3 FY2026 ended 2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 1ReportedNone identifiedNone
Net income$29.789BQ3 FY2026 ended 2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 1ReportedNone identifiedNone
Diluted EPS$2.02Q3 FY2026 ended 2026-06-27UNVERIFIEDApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 1 UNVERIFIED: provider-normalized EPS lacks an identified provider and dated supporting record; it is not the reported sum of quarterly diluted EPS and is not a canonical valuation input.ReportedIncludes disclosed tariff-refund benefitFull normalized EPS bridge unavailable
Weighted-average diluted shares14.714676BQ3 FY2026 ended 2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 1ReportedWeighted-average, not period-end sharesNone
Prior-year diluted shares14.948179BQ3 FY2025 ended 2025-06-28Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 1Reported comparativeNone identifiedNone
iPhone revenue$54.252BQ3 FY2026 ended 2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, Note 2ReportedNone identifiedNone
Services revenue$30.739BQ3 FY2026 ended 2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, Note 2ReportedNone identifiedNone
Gross margin50.1% reported; 50.06% derivedQ3 FY2026 ended 2026-06-27Primary verified and DerivedApple earnings release 2026-07-30; Form 10-Q 2026-07-31, p. 1$54.770B / $109.417BRelease states approximately 2 pp tariff-refund benefitRecurring margin reconciliation
Operating income$35.695BQ3 FY2026 ended 2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 1ReportedNone identifiedNone
Nine-month operating cash flow$116.996BNine months ended 2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 5ReportedNot standalone Q3Exact Q3 cash flow
Nine-month free cash flow$110.197BNine months ended 2026-06-27DerivedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 5$116.996B − $6.799BMatching-period OCF less capexNone for nine-month calculation
Nine-month repurchases$62.094BNine months ended 2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 5Reported financing cash flowDoes not identify exact Q3 repurchasesStandalone Q3 repurchase amount
Cash and cash equivalents$39.544B2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 3ReportedSeparate from marketable securitiesNone
Current and non-current marketable securities$22.855B and $84.118B2026-06-27Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 3ReportedNot cash; complete EV treatment not establishedComplete debt and securities bridge
Price$336.89Quote 2026-09-23T20:33:39.352ZUnverified / secondary provider recordPolygon.io snapshot retrieved 2026-09-23Selected live after-hours quoteProvider record retained; independent historical confirmation remains unverifiedIndependent confirmation
Shares outstanding14.594180B2026-07-17Primary verifiedApple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, coverReportedDate differs from price timestampNone
Approximate Approximate market capitalization$4,916.633BConditional on selected priceDerivedPrice record and Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q cover$336.89 × 14.594180BConditional on unverified price and mixed datesConfirm price basis

TTM revenue formula: $102.466B + $143.756B + $111.184B + $109.417B = $466.823B

TTM revenue: Derived from primary-source inputs; the four-quarter total is calculated, not a separately reported issuer fact.

TTM revenue source bridge:

TTM net income formula: $27.466B + $42.097B + $29.578B + $29.789B = $128.930B

TTM net income: Derived from primary-source inputs; the four-quarter total is calculated, not a separately reported issuer fact.

TTM net income source bridge:

TTM operating income formula: $32.427B + $50.852B + $35.885B + $35.695B = $154.859B

TTM operating income: Derived from primary-source inputs; the four-quarter total is calculated, not a separately reported issuer fact.

TTM operating income source bridge:

Reconciliation/error log

Reconciliation note: Marked every price-dependent valuation output as conditional on the unverified quote. Labeled the price-times-reported-share-count market capitalization as approximate because the input dates may differ.

TypeOriginal claimCorrectionSupporting source and date
FormattingThe prior output omitted the required Canonical facts appendix and Reconciliation/error log.Added both required sections, including the canonical fact table, source bridges, and unresolved-evidence entries.Report structure correction, 2026-09-23
CitationThe standalone Q3 operating-cash-flow comparison was not directly supported by a retrieved dollar amount.Retained only the verified nine-month operating-cash-flow comparison and marked the exact standalone Q3 amount Unverified / unresolved.Apple, “Apple reports third quarter results,” 2026-07-30; Apple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 5
DefinitionEPS growth and net-income growth could be treated as interchangeable.Kept net-income growth at 27.1% and diluted-EPS growth at 28.7%, with the 1.6% diluted-share reduction shown separately.Apple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 1
Period basisBuyback evidence could be read as a standalone Q3 amount.Labeled $62.094B as the nine-month repurchase amount and did not infer a standalone Q3 repurchase figure.Apple Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-07-31, p. 5
Valuation provenanceA live price could be treated as an official close.Used $336.89 only as an explicitly UNVERIFIED after-hours valuation input and separately identified the $337.02 September 23 regular-session close as context only.Retained Polygon.io records retrieved 2026-09-23

Five things an investor should verify independently

  • Standalone Q3 cash flow: Verify Apple’s exact operating cash flow and free cash flow for the three months ended June 27, 2026, rather than relying on the nine-month bridge.
  • Tariff-refund normalization: Check Apple’s next filing for the recurring versus non-recurring effect of tariff refunds on gross margin and EPS.
  • Product and Services durability: Compare the next same-period iPhone and Services revenue figures with Q3 FY2026’s respective $54.252B and $30.739B.
  • Buyback timing and share-count mechanics: Reconcile repurchase cash payments, weighted-average diluted shares, period-end shares, and employee equity issuance over the same fiscal period.
  • Independently confirm the selected after-hours trade/price of $336.89 at 2026-09-23T20:33:39.352Z (ticker.lastTrade.p). All price-dependent valuation outputs use this selected input, not a context-only regular-session close. The retained record and checksum provide traceability, not independent authentication. Source record: https://api.polygon.io/v2/snapshot/locale/us/markets/stocks/tickers/AAPL
Try your own market question
  • Connected research
  • Visible sources
  • Your next question

Put your rules to the test

Test your strategy against historical data.

Turn your Apple price-strength idea into rules you can test. Edit the code, run it against the historical window, and inspect the results in PineNode, Sentimentor’s strategy editor.

strategy.tsAAPL · PineNode
// AAPL · historical price follow-through
// Price/volume rule only — not a test of the fundamental claim.
// Next-bar open fills; 5 bps slippage per side, zero commission.
// Open positions are closed at the final close.
const lookback = pn.param('Lookback', 20, 5, 50, 1);
const maxHold = pn.param('Maximum holding bars', 10, 1, 30, 1);
const average = new SMA(lookback);
pn.name('AAPL price follow-through').onBar(({ series, position, barIndex, buy, sell, plot }) => {
const mean = average.next(series);
if (series.length <= lookback) return;
let priorHigh = -Infinity;
let priorVolume = 0;
for (let i = 1; i <= lookback; i++) {
priorHigh = Math.max(priorHigh, series.high(i));
priorVolume += series.volume(i);
}
plot('Prior range high', priorHigh, { color: '#f97316' });
plot('Moving average', mean, { color: '#22d3ee' });
if (!position && series.close(0) > priorHigh &&
series.volume(0) > priorVolume / lookback) {
buy('Prior-range breakout with volume');
} else if (position && (series.close(0) < mean ||
barIndex - position.entryBarIndex >= maxHold)) {
sell('Moving average or holding-period exit');
}
});

Edit the code, then run. 2026-06-01 – 2026-09-22; next-bar open fills, 5 bps slippage per side, zero commission, 100% notional exposure without leverage. Final open position closed at the last close.

Your rules. The same historical chart.

Run the PineNode code on AAPL to see its moving average, prior-range plot and any simulated entries and exits. Nothing runs until you click Exploratory Backtest.

Exploratory only—not out-of-sample validation or evidence of future returns. This price-only rule does not verify the story’s fundamental explanation.

A price-only test cannot validate Apple’s earnings quality, isolate buybacks or normalize tariff refunds. Testing those claims requires point-in-time financial disclosures, not just historical prices. Backtest results do not establish future returns.

Learn how to test a strategy →Inspect validation methodology →

Follow the evidence over time

Keep checking your thesis automatically.

Don’t just research a stock. Know when your thesis changes. Revisit the claims behind your Apple thesis—or repeat a check built from your tested rules—as new evidence arrives. A workflow is the set of checks you save and choose to run again.

  1. Save the investigation.

    Keep your thesis, sources, and open questions together as a baseline to return to.

  2. Schedule the checks.

    Choose the questions or tested rules to revisit. Review the inputs and set a schedule in your account.

  3. Review what changed.

    Compare new evidence with your saved research. Decide whether it supports, weakens, or challenges your thesis.

Mon/Wed/Fri · 09:00 ETReport

AAPL EARNINGS & BUYBACKS

Research monitoring

Sources
Counterevidence
Dated assessment

AAPL earnings & buybacks review

Revisit the evidence, challenge the thesis and keep a dated review.

Monday, Wednesday, Friday · 09:00 America/New_York · not activated

Workflow execution simulation

Ready to run

Uses the workflow run-log UI and the supplied story assessment. No new market fetch, AI call, saved report or trade is produced by Run.

  1. Pending·Load the historical context
    AAPL · evidence cutoff 2026-09-23. Keep publication dates separate from market-bar dates.
  2. Pending·Inspect the evidence
    Compare Apple’s quarterly revenue, net income, EPS and diluted shares. Separate tariff-refund benefits and keep nine-month cash flow and buybacks distinct from standalone Q3.
  3. Pending·Challenge the thesis
    Check counterevidence and missing inputs. Replay the supplied assessment without treating missing observations as confirmed.
  4. Pending·Prepare the review
    Keep the dated conclusion and limitations together so a subsequent real run can be compared.
Learn how to schedule research checks →Start with your own question →

In your workspace, scheduled runs use your plan’s workflow allowance and can be skipped when it is exhausted. This public demo never activates a schedule. Research monitoring is not an instruction to place trades.

Follow the investigation.

Different markets. Different challenges.
See how Sentimentor investigates.

Apple’s earnings drivers. Gold’s positioning. Bitcoin’s demand. Follow each investigation from its starting question to the evidence, the competing explanations, and what to check next.

Explore the research stories

AAPL · Business growth & buybacksEvidence through September 23, 2026

01 · The question after earnings

Apple’s earnings rise. What’s driving them?
What could the headline miss?

Apple’s July 30, 2026 results show earnings per share growing faster than net income. Before treating that as stronger business performance, separate operating growth from the share-count effect—and examine the tariff refunds behind part of the improvement.

AAPL Apple

Q3 FY2026 vs Q3 FY2025 · quarters ended June 27, 2026 and June 28, 2025

Evidence through September 23, 2026

Stronger business, fewer shares—or both?

Business earnings vs per-share earnings

Year-over-year growth (%) · zero-based scale

017.535+27.1%Net income+28.7%Diluted EPS

Editorial comparison calculated from Apple’s reported quarterly figures, not an Augur-generated chart or a live quote. The growth-rate gap is not a standalone measure of buyback contribution.

Apple · Q3 FY2026 Form 10-QApple · Third-quarter results

Reported results

Growth beyond the share count

Revenue rose from $94.036B to $109.417B; net income rose from $23.434B to $29.789B. Diluted EPS increased from $1.57 to $2.02.

Apple · Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q

The denominator

Fewer diluted shares

Weighted-average diluted shares fell from 14.948B to 14.715B, approximately 1.6%. Per-share growth and total earnings growth are not interchangeable.

Apple · Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q

The detail to investigate

A tariff-refund benefit

Apple disclosed a benefit of approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to diluted EPS. How much of the improvement can repeat?

Apple · Third-quarter results

What don’t we know?

The supplied report does not establish normalized recurring earnings or exact standalone Q3 cash flow and repurchases. Its $116.996B operating cash flow and $62.094B buybacks cover nine months, not one quarter. Its price-dependent valuation remains conditional on an unverified after-hours quote.

Inspect the source inputs

Net income: ($29.789B ÷ $23.434B − 1) × 100 ≈ 27.1% · Diluted EPS: ($2.02 ÷ $1.57 − 1) × 100 ≈ 28.7%

Both growth rates compare Q3 FY2026 with Q3 FY2025. EPS uses reported rounded per-share amounts. Fewer diluted shares help explain the difference; neither calculation isolates buybacks or removes the tariff-refund benefit.

The supplied report does not establish normalized recurring earnings or exact standalone Q3 cash flow and repurchases. Its $116.996B operating cash flow and $62.094B buybacks cover nine months, not one quarter. Its price-dependent valuation remains conditional on an unverified after-hours quote.

01 / 06

Historical evidence · Research, not financial advice

Sources and dates travel with each story. Historical results remain separate from forward evidence. AI analysis can be incorrect; none of these examples guarantees an outcome.

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Sentimentor provides research tools, not financial advice. AI analysis can be incorrect. Historical or simulated results do not guarantee future performance. Dated story evidence, supplied Augur responses, historical market data and workflow simulations are labeled separately.

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